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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."